One noteworthy feature of the 2020 Primary Election was an embrace of absentee voting, a trend that predated the subsequent legal debates over the feasibility of conducting in-person voting that March. Undoubtedly this move was sparked by concerns over the pandemic. But as we are moving foward in the 2024 Primary Election, it's evident that the appeal of absentee ballots has only grown, even against a backdrop of a less captivating electoral landscape.
Back in 2020, Democrats navigated a packed Presidential Primary field, while Republicans deliberated over two contested races for the County Commission and County Sheriff, alongside local issues like fire levies and tax proposals in various townships and cities.
In comparison, the 2024 electoral scene presents a stark contrast, with Presidential nominations already wrapped up and a smaller ballot, though there is a Republican contest for a Senate seat, another contested race for County Sheriff and several school district tax initiatives in the Bethel, Milton-Union and Tipp City School Districts.
The surge in early voting in 2024 begs analysis. Current figures show 3,945 ballots already submitted to the Board of Elections, marking a 37% increase from the 2,872 ballots collected at the same point in 2020. Remarkably, early voting among Republicans has significantly outpaced that of Democrats, with the former exceeding the latter by more than a 3 to 1 ratio.
It’s not exactly easy to say what is driving these Republican voters to vote early. The contested Senate Primary could certainly be a factor, but recent polling reports show that there is no clear leader in the race and the number of undecided voters is still abnormally large; a recent Ohio Northern University poll put the number of undecided voters at 44%; undecided voters tend not to vote early.
There are also local contested races, the County’s Sheriff Race is showing robust campaigning by both sides, which might be driving turnout in some areas. Ballots cast from Piqua are showing a 25% increase from 2020 levels. There are also contested races for a seat on the State Central GOP Committee and the Second District Court of Appeals, but rarely do races like this drive turnout to the polls.
What could be driving turnout are tax issues faced by voters in school districts. Bethel voters are considering a contiuning income tax renewal levy here in 2024 and the early votes from the south east corner of the township are nearly double what they were in 2020 (from 137 ballots to 243 ballots). Voters in the Tipp City Exempted Village School District are considering a new building levy and the early turnout in 2024 has been 861 ballots cast against the 347 ballots cast in 2020, a 148% increase. Milton-Union voters are also faced with a continuing school income tax and more than 343 early voters have turned out to cast a ballot; well above the 2020 pace of 169 voters.
Overall, what we are seeing is a trend that early voting is a more convenient and popular way for voters of both parties to cast their ballots. The data that we receive from early voting is helpful that it might be able to spot certain trends on where voters are turning out and what issues are on the minds of those voters. It will certainly make for an interesting Primary Election Day on Tuesday.
For those of you that want to vote early, you can cast a ballot at the Miami County Board of Elections in the historic Miami County Courthouse on Friday, March 15th from 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m., Saturday, March 16th from 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. and Sunday, March 17th from 1:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.
Primary Election Day is Tuesday, March 17th with voting at the preincts from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
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With the collective efforts from the citizens in Ohio the cast vote records were able to be obtained from 39 of the 88 counties.
The cast Vote record is a sequential listing of every ballot processed by the county. It lists every vote cast on that ballot along with information about how that ballot was cast and was processed.
This record allows data analyst to essentially replay the election vote by vote to examine how the election unfolded.
The cast vote record contains no information identifying the voter.
Miami County vote tallies are not reconciled via the cast vote record and the log files.
Please see page 209 for the information on the counties that complied to the citizens Open Records Request.
https://fingerprintsoffraud.com/
Please also see open letter sent to Attorney General Yost raising the serious cybersecurity issues identified by experts, whistleblowers as well as certification compliance issues. This letter has the sources listed.
http://www.ohioansfortransparency.com
https://www.supremecourt.gov/Search.aspx?FileName=/docket/docketfiles/html/public\23-998.html
Keep an eye on Jerusalem. 🙏