Election 2024 Redux

A deeper look at what happened last Tuesday at the Ballot Box

Last Tuesday was Election Day across the country and while any Presidential Election tends to grip the nation and drive turnout, they aren’t necessarily as interesting as local elections where there tend to be more races on a more granular level which tend to expose interesting trends in election data. But, even in last Tuesday’s election, there were some interesting numbers that are at least worth a look.

Voter Turnout

Paying attention to the early vote counts from the Courthouse throughout October, one might think that Miami County was in for another large voter turnout when the final tallies were made. In fact, in 2020, voter turnout was over 77% in Miami County. It seemed that number could be even higher in 2024.

But, it wasn’t. Yes, 512 more people voted in 2024 than in 2020, but voter turnout actually fell from 2020 numbers. This past election, turnout was 74.78%. The drop was due to the fact that while 512 more people voted, there were actually 3,261 more registered voters this election cycle.

The early voting that seemed steady in constant at the courthouse did show that the early voting option is becoming more and more popular. In 2020, 21,051 cast an early vote, representing 27.9% of all registered voters. In 2024, that number grew to 23,068 early voters — 29.2% of all voters.

President Trump Did Better

When Donald Trump first appeared on a General Election ballot in Miami County, he did well. He won all but one precinct in Miami County and had 69.97% of the vote with 36,311 votes cast. His effort put up better numbers than Mitt Romney in 2012 (66.53%) and John McCain in 2008 (63.23%).

It was an open question on whether Donald Trump could put up better numbers in 2020, he proved worthy to the task. While he wasn’t elected President, he did carry Miami County with 41,372 votes, a raw vote total of over 5,000 from his 2016 effort, that equated to 71.24% of the vote.

Could he do even better in 2024? The answer was yes. While he didn’t gain an additional 5,000 votes like he did from 2016 to 2020, he gained a pretty respectable 600 votes (in an election where turnout was actually lower). He carried the county with 71.77% of the vote.

Perhaps even more noteworthy is that Donald Trump carried every precinct in the county. In both 2016 and 2020, Precinct Troy 2-C did not provide a majority for President Trump. However, in 2024, he carried the precinct with 50.5% of the vote.

Troy School Levy: Different Issue, Similar Result

Last year, voters in the Troy City School District were faced with a large, multi-year bond issue that was heavily promoted by supporters. In the end, the bond measure passed by a fairly healthy 53.8% to 48.2% margin. The measure gained broad support passing in 21 of the district’s 33 precincts, including 14 of the 21 precincts in the City of Troy.

This year, voters were faced with a more modest Permanent Improvement Levy that was a renewal effort that would not raise property taxes, but keep those taxes at current levels.

The result was nearly identical to the 2023 bond issue. The permanent improvement levy passed 54.5% to 45.5% and was passed in the same number of precincts on both the district and city level. It was certainly interesting that both tax issues, while very different, had nearly identical results.

County Recorder Race

The county wide race that was certainly going to be the most interesting was the write-in race for County Recorder. Since the previous County Recorder resigned too late to put any names on the ballot, county voters in the ballot box were faced with a bubble and a line.

In order for a vote to count, a voter needed to fill in the bubble and write the name of one of the two certified candidates for the position, the two candidates being Dave Norman and Samuel Pierce.

In the end, there were 9,651 valid votes cast, which was roughly 16% of the entire electorate, which is a relatively high number for a write-in campaign. Dave Norman, who was named Interim Recorder by the Miami County Republican Party’s Central Committee, claimed 6,140 votes (63.6%), while Troy’s Third Ward Council Member Samuel Pierce had 3,511 votes (36.4%). Of note, there were 2,657 invalid votes, which more than likely are names written in that weren’t certified by the Board of Elections.

What Do You Think?

Are any of these figures interesting or surprising? Is there anything that isn’t covered that you want to know about this past election? Our paid subscribers are more than welcome to leave their ideas and insights in the comment thread!

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