Looking Closer at Community Demographics
Troy is growing on both ends of the age spectrum; both getting older, and getting younger. What can these demographics mean for our community's future?
I have always found demographics interesting, especially as it relates to how places grow. And as we move forward here in the 21st Century, demography is taking on a more pronounced role in our world.
A lot of the role comes from a general feeling that the world is not only becoming more complex, but more stressed. There are strains on all sorts of resources, both natural and man-made. Some older folks are beginning to wonder if the world they are leaving for future generations is a better-off or worse-off place. In some quarters, there is no limit to the existential dread that is felt.
Is Demographics Showing a Shrinking World?
Demographic study comes on the scene as an indicator on not only how our world and our communities look now, but could be a harbinger for things to come. India is now the world’s largest country, taking the title from China. Fertility rates are dropping across the world; Italy has a fertility rate of 1.2 births per woman. South Korea is even worse at 1.1; academics tend to agree that a 2.1 fertility rate is “replacement value”, meaning this rate is needed just to maintain a population, anything less and the population will decline.
As we are seeing a world where demographics are showing places that are shrinking and not growing, how are things looking in our community? Can census data give us an idea of what Troy will look like in the future? What are some of the implications of these demographic trends on our community moving into the future? These were all questions ralling around in my own mind.
Analyzing demographic data for our hometown, reveals significant insights into the city’s potential for strategic growth. I took a look by examining trends in live births, the percentage of residents aged 18 and younger, and the percentage of residents aged 62 and older. Even though these are only three data points that show some demographic trends, it does allow for some analysis on how our city might grow and what factors will influence this growth.
Looking at Data
Starting with the number of live births, Troy has seen a notable increase over the past decade. In 2012, there were 243 live births, a number that dropped to 235 in 2013 and further to 166 in 2014. However, starting in 2015, the city began to experience a steady rise in live births, with numbers climbing from 286 to 308 in 2016, 356 in 2017, and reaching 413 in 2018. This upward trend continued, peaking at 555 live births in 2019. Although there was a slight dip to 466 in 2020 (did the pandemic actually cause this number to go down?), the numbers rebounded to 504 in 2021 and 528 in 2022. This overall increase suggests that the city’s population is growing, particularly among younger age groups, as more families are having children.
The second data set, which tracks the percentage of residents aged 18 and younger, supports this observation. In 2012, 24.2% of Troy’s population was in this age group. This percentage saw a slight decline to 23.5% in 2013 and 22.7% in 2014, followed by a minor increase to 23.2% in 2015. The percentage dipped again to 21.9% in 2016 but then began a steady rise to 22.6% in 2017, 23.5% in 2018, and 24.1% in 2019. By 2020, the percentage had increased to 25.0%, and it reached 25.6% in 2021 before slightly decreasing to 24.1% in 2022. Despite some fluctuations, the overall trend indicates a stable or slightly increasing young population, aligning with the rising number of live births. This stability suggests that families with children are either growing within the city or moving to Troy, contributing to a youthful demographic that can drive future growth.
Conversely, the third data set, which examines the percentage of residents aged 62 and older, reveals a different trend. In 2012, 17.1% of the population fell into this age group. This percentage increased to 17.9% in 2013, 19.1% in 2014, and 18.5% in 2015. The upward trajectory continued with 19.5% in 2016, 19.9% in 2017, and 20.0% in 2018, peaking at 20.5% in 2019. However, there was a slight decrease to 19.0% in 2020 and 18.9% in 2021, before rising again to 20.1% in 2022. This trend indicates a growing elderly population, which is a common phenomenon in many communities as the overall population ages.
Can our hometown grow?
Analyzing these trends together provides a comprehensive picture of Troy’s demographic landscape. The increasing number of live births and the stable percentage of young residents suggest that Troy is in a strategic position for population growth. The rising number of families with children indicates a growing demand for housing, schools, and family-oriented services. This demographic shift is crucial for long-term growth as it ensures a steady influx of young residents who will contribute to the city’s economy and community life in the coming decades.
At the same time, the increasing percentage of elderly residents highlights the need for balanced strategies that cater to both younger and older populations. While the number of live births and the stable youth demographic suggest potential for expansion, the city must also consider the needs of its aging population. This dual focus can help Troy create a balanced community that supports residents across all age groups.
Economic and social implications of these demographic trends are significant. The rising number of young families will likely lead to increased demand for family housing, necessitating the development of new residential areas or the expansion of existing ones. Schools and educational facilities will also need to accommodate a growing student population, which could involve building new schools, expanding current ones, or investing in educational resources and programs. Last year’s approval of a new building levy for the Troy City Schools should be seen as a positive for the community in this respect.
Healthcare services will need to adapt to serve both the young and the elderly. For younger populations, this might mean more pediatric care and family health services, while for the elderly, it could mean enhanced geriatric care, chronic disease management, and senior living facilities. In other words, the data shows that this past winter’s accouncement by Premier Health to remove their birthing center from the Upper Valley Medical Center may have been a move that is not supported by the demographic needs of the community.
Infrastructure will also need to be developed and maintained to support the city’s growth. This includes transportation, utilities, recreational facilities, and public services. As the population grows, so will the need for efficient public transportation, safe and well-maintained roads, and public spaces that enhance the quality of life for all residents.
Particular notice should be paid to the city’s park system. The city’s consultants, American Structurepoint, has noted that the city has a robust park system; in terms of parkland per capita, Troy has to have one of the largest park systems around. However, as the consultants noted, these parks aren’t placed well. Many neighborhoods, like the city’s northeast side, has very little dedicated public parkland.
What can our community do?
To ensure healthy growth over the next ten years, Troy must undertake several key interventions. One crucial area of focus should be urban planning and zoning. The city should create a master plan that addresses residential, commercial, and industrial development in a way that supports sustainable growth. This plan should include zoning laws that encourage the development of mixed-use areas, integrating housing with retail and office spaces to create vibrant, walkable communities. Such areas can attract young families, contributing to a dynamic local economy.
Investing in education is another critical intervention. As the number of young residents grows, so does the need for high-quality educational facilities. Troy should consider expanding existing schools, building new ones, and enhancing educational programs to meet the needs of a diverse student population. Again, last year’s approval of a new property tax levy for new buidlings in the district will go a long way to help meet this goal. Continued work in collaborating with local businesses and higher education institutions to create internship and vocational training programs can also prepare students for the workforce, benefiting the local economy.
Healthcare infrastructure must also be bolstered to accommodate the needs of a growing and aging population. This includes expanding healthcare facilities, recruiting more healthcare professionals, and investing in specialized services for both children and the elderly. Telemedicine and mobile health services could also be explored to improve access to care, especially for residents in more remote areas. Having Premier Health reconsider their decision to shutter their maternity ward is something that is not out of the question.
Transportation and infrastructure development are essential to support the city’s growth. Improving public transportation options, such as developing a strong city-wide network of recreational trails, maintaining and upgrading roads, and ensuring reliable utilities will enhance the quality of life for residents. Developing green spaces and recreational facilities will also contribute to a healthy, active community. Parks, trails, and community centers can provide spaces for residents to engage in physical activities and social interactions, promoting overall well-being.
Attainable housing is another critical issue that must be addressed. As the population grows, so will the demand for housing. The city should implement policies that promote the development of attainable housing to ensure that all residents have access to safe and comfortable living conditions. This could include incentives for developers to build financially attainable units, as well as programs to assist first-time homebuyers and low-income families.
Economic development initiatives should focus on attracting and retaining businesses that can provide jobs and support the local economy. This could involve offering tax incentives, supporting small businesses, and investing in infrastructure that makes the city an attractive place for businesses to operate. Encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation through business incubators and technology parks can also stimulate economic growth and create new opportunities for residents. Fortunately, Troy has a strong history in undetaking these activities.
Community engagement and participation are crucial for successful growth. The city should actively involve residents in the planning process through public forums, surveys, and community meetings. This ensures that development initiatives align with the needs and desires of the community. Promoting a sense of ownership and pride in the community can also foster social cohesion and collaboration. As a start, the city could reconsider their social media policy and actually allow comments on social media posts to help facilitate discussions on issues of importance to the community.
Bringing it all together
Our hometown is strategically positioned for growth, driven by an increasing number of live births and a stable young population. The city's demographic trends indicate balanced potential for expansion, with opportunities and challenges in accommodating both younger and older residents. Strategic planning in housing, education, healthcare, and infrastructure will be crucial to harnessing this growth potential effectively. By addressing the needs of its diverse population and implementing key interventions, Troy can ensure sustainable development and a high quality of life for all its residents. The next ten years offer a critical window for the city to plan and implement these strategies, setting the stage for a thriving and dynamic future.
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The raw numbers of each age segment are most usefully considered when viewed as percentages of the whole over time. Time for some graphs!